Apple Strategy Updated Feb 8, 2016

by Mike Scanlin

Apple closed at 94.02 last week, after having closed the previous week at 97.34. All four of our AAPL strategies were out-of-the-money so we let the options expire worthless and sold new ones shortly after the open today. We also had a 52 cent dividend on Feb 4 last week.

To review, we are tracking 4 covered call strategies on Apple for 2016 (we are also tracking a buy-and-hold strategy for comparison):

Strategy Name	Source of Income	YTD Return	vs. B&H
12%/year goal	ITM weekly covered calls + dividends	1.8%	+9.2%
24%/year goal	ITM weekly covered calls + dividends	2.9%	+10.4%
ATM	ATM weekly covered calls + dividends	-1.6%	+5.9%
2% OTM	2% OTM weekly covered calls + dividends	-4.0%	+3.4%
buy and hold	dividends	-7.4%

In all cases our initial purchase of AAPL was done at $102.57 on Jan 4, 2016. See the goals for the year and initial option sales here. (definitions for ITM, ATM, and OTM)

12%/year goal - Apple Strategy #1

Prior actions:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
1/4/16	buy 100 shares AAPL	102.57
1/4/16	sell 95-strike Jan 8 call		7.80	0.23
1/8/16	buy 95-strike Jan 8 call	2.06		0.00
1/8/16	sell 89-strike Jan 15 call		8.35	0.29
1/15/16	buy 89-strike Jan 15 call	8.15		-0.03
1/15/16	sell 90-strike Jan 22 call		7.40	0.28
1/22/16	buy 90-strike Jan 22 call	11.30		-0.04
1/22/16	sell 90-strike Jan 29 call		11.60	0.34
1/29/16	buy 90-strike Jan 29 call	7.15		-0.02
1/29/16	sell 94.50-strike Feb 5 call		2.95	0.32
2/4/16	dividend		0.52

At the end of the week, just before the close, AAPL was trading at 94.02 and we let the 94.50-strike options expire out of the money. Shortly after the open today AAPL was trading at 94.42 and we sold the 89-strike for this week to generate 23 cents of premium:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
2/5/16	94.50-strike expired OTM	0.00
2/8/16	sell 89-strike Feb 12 call		5.65	0.23

Here's the math we used to determine the 89-strike was the right strike to keep us on track for 12%/year:

Item	Value	Notes
starting capital	102.57	Initial cost of shares
Dec 31 goal for 12% return	114.88	102.57 * 1.12
actual income received	9.96	net call premium + paid divs
dividends yet to be paid 2016	1.56	3 x 0.52
assumed income received	11.52	net call premium + unpaid divs
current stock price	94.42	at the time we rolled
stock price + assumed income	105.94	94.42 + 11.52
income needed by Dec 31	8.94	114.88 - 105.94
weeks remaining	47	in 2016
income needed per week	0.19	8.94 / 47
2016 YTD return	1.8%	(105.94 - 1.56 - 102.57) / 102.57

With that, we knew that to get 12% return for the year (which includes unpaid, but expected, dividends) we need 19 cents per week for the 47 remaining weeks in time premium. When examining the choices just before Friday's close we saw the deepest in-the-money option we could sell that provided at least 19 cents of time premium was the 89-strike.

24%/year goal - Apple Strategy #2

Prior actions:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
1/4/16	buy 100 shares AAPL	102.57
1/4/16	sell 98-strike Jan 8 call		5.03	0.46
1/8/16	98-strike expired OTM	0.00
1/11/16	sell 95-strike Jan 15 call		4.15	0.51
1/15/16	buy 95-strike Jan 15 call	2.15		-0.03
1/15/16	sell 93-strike Jan 22 call		4.65	0.53
1/22/16	buy 93-strike Jan 22 call	8.20		0.06
1/22/16	sell 92-strike Jan 29 call		9.75	0.49
1/29/16	buy 92-strike Jan 29 call	5.15		-0.02
1/29/16	sell 95-strike Feb 5 call		2.55	0.42
2/4/16	dividend		0.52

At the end of the week, just before the close, AAPL was trading at 94.02 and we let the 95-strike options expire out of the money. Shortly after the open today AAPL was trading at 94.42 and we sold the 91-strike for this week to generate 48 cents of premium:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
2/5/16	95-strike expired OTM	0.00
2/8/16	sell 91-strike Feb 12 call		3.90	0.48

Here's the math we used to determine the 91-strike was the right strike to keep us on track for 24%/year:

Item	Value	Notes
starting capital	102.57	Initial cost of shares
Dec 31 goal for 24% return	127.19	102.57 * 1.24
actual income received	11.15	net call premium + paid divs
dividends yet to be paid 2016	1.56	3 x 0.52
assumed income received	12.71	net call premium + unpaid divs
current stock price	94.42	at the time we rolled
stock price + assumed income	107.13	94.42 + 12.71
income needed by Dec 31	20.06	127.19 - 107.13
weeks remaining	47	in 2016
income needed per week	0.43	20.06 / 47
2016 YTD return	2.9%	(107.13 - 1.56 - 102.57) / 102.57

To stay on track for a 24% return for the year (which includes unpaid, but expected, dividends) we need 43 cents per week for the remaining 47 weeks in time premium. When examining the choices just before Friday's close we saw the deepest in-the-money option we could sell that provided at least 43 cents of time premium was the 91-strike.

ATM (at-the-money) - Apple Strategy #3

Prior actions:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
1/4/16	buy 100 shares AAPL	102.57
1/4/16	sell 103-strike Jan 8 call		1.39	1.39
1/8/16	103-strike expired OTM	0.00
1/11/16	sell 98.50-strike Jan 15 call		1.65	1.51
1/15/16	98.50-strike expired OTM	0.00
1/18/16	sell 98-strike Jan 22 call		1.80	1.40
1/22/16	Buy 98-strike Jan 22 call	3.25		0.01
1/22/16	sell 101-strike Jan 29 call		3.25	2.99
1/29/16	101-strike expired OTM	0.00
2/1/16	sell 96-strike Feb 5 call		1.18	1.08
2/4/16	dividend		0.52

The 96-strike options expired worthless (OTM) last Friday and then this morning (Monday) we wrote new options (ATM) when AAPL was trading at 94.42:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
2/5/16	96-strike expired OTM	0.00
2/8/16	sell 94.50-strike Feb 12 call		1.53	1.53

At the time we rolled, this strategy's summary was:

Item	Value	Notes
starting capital	102.57	Initial cost of shares
actual income received	6.54	net call premium + paid divs
current stock price	94.42	at the time we rolled
stock price + actual income	100.96	94.42 + 6.54
2016 YTD return	-1.6%	(100.96 - 102.57) / 102.57

This strategy is simple to implement and track. Each Friday we either let the option expire (if OTM) and wait until the following Monday morning to write a new option, or buy the option back (if ITM) and then sell another option right away. The reason we treat OTM and ITM slightly differently is to optimize for transaction costs -- rather than buy back the OTM option for 5 cents at the close on Friday we just let it expire.

2% OTM (out-of-the-money) - Apple Strategy #4

Prior actions:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
1/4/16	buy 100 shares AAPL	102.57
1/4/16	sell 105-strike Jan 8 call		0.60	0.60
1/8/16	105-strike expired OTM	0.00
1/11/16	sell 101-strike Jan 15 call		0.61	0.61
1/15/16	101-strike expired OTM	0.00
1/19/16	sell 100-strike Jan 22 call		0.84	0.84
1/22/16	buy 100-strike Jan 22 call	1.30		-0.04
1/22/16	sell 103-strike Jan 29 call		2.34	2.34
1/29/16	103-strike expired OTM	0.00
2/1/16	sell 98-strike Feb 5 call		0.42	0.42
2/4/16	dividend		0.52

The 98-strike options expired worthless (OTM) last Friday and then this morning (Monday) we wrote new options (2% OTM) when AAPL was trading at 94.42:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
2/5/16	98-strike expired OTM	0.00
2/8/16	sell 96.50-strike Feb 12 call		0.70	0.70

At the time we rolled, this strategy's summary was:

Item	Value	Notes
starting capital	102.57	Initial cost of shares
actual income received	4.03	net call premium + paid divs
current stock price	94.42	at the time we rolled
stock price + actual income	98.45	94.42 + 4.03
2016 YTD return	-4.0%	(98.45 - 102.57) / 102.57

This strategy is also simple to implement and track. Each Friday we either let the option expire (if OTM) and wait until the following Monday morning to write a new option, or buy the option back (if ITM) and then sell another option right away.

Buy and Hold (For Comparison)

Prior actions:

Date	Action	$ out	$ in	Time Premium
1/4/16	buy 100 shares AAPL	102.57
2/4/16	dividend		0.52

This strategy's summary when AAPL was trading at 94.42 this morning:

Item	Value	Notes
starting capital	102.57	Initial cost of shares
actual income received	0.52	paid dividends
current stock price	94.42
stock price + actual income	94.94	94.42 + 0.52
2016 YTD return	-7.4%	(94.94 - 102.57) / 102.57

Mike Scanlin is the founder of Born To Sell and has been writing covered calls for a long time.

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